THE BANGKO SENTRAL ng Pilipinas (BSP) is looking to limit its foreign exchange intervention on markets by finalizing a new framework this year, its chief said on Thursday.

In his first public event this year at the Rotary Club’s weekly meeting, BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said the central bank aims to make the peso more competitive and reduce restrictions in the foreign exchange market.

“We’re developing a framework for intervention… We think intervention should only happen during times of stress. It’s meant to contain stress,” he said.

Mr. Remolona told reporters that BSP Senior Assistant Governor Edna C. Villa will head the central bank’s Financial Markets department, replacing retired Ma. Ramona Gertrudes D.T. Santiago. 

The foreign exchange framework will also be implemented this year, he said.

The BSP chief has instructed Ms. Villa to identify the Philippines’ peers in the region when it comes to movements against the dollar.

“We want to do things in the right way. We want to do things based on fundamentals and also based on what we know is going on in the markets,” he said.

Meanwhile, Mr. Remolona noted that October 2022 was a stressful episode for the central bank and the foreign exchange market. 

“Those are the events in which we want to intervene,” he said. “I think we’ve been intervening a bit too much. If it’s about containing stress, that also means intervention should be infrequent.”

In October 2022, the peso reached its record low of P59 against the dollar. This also caused the peso to add to inflationary pressures during that time, which prompted the BSP to intervene in the foreign exchange market and raise interest rates. 

The peso has since rebounded to the P55 level, closing at P55.50 against the dollar on Thursday.

To tame inflation, the Monetary Board hiked borrowing costs by 450 basis points (bps) from May 2022 to October 2023. This has brought the key interest rate to 6.5%, its highest in 16 years.

Mr. Remolona said the current 6.5% policy rate is still appropriate to ensure growth and tame inflation at the same time. 

“People say we’ve been tightening too much… that’s a very difficult challenge because we want to make sure that we don’t tighten unnecessarily,” he said.

However, the BSP chief said there are still upside risks to inflation, but he is hoping that inflation will settle within the 2-4% target range for most of 2024.

BSP sees inflation settling at an average of 6% in 2023, before easing to 3.7% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025.

A BusinessWorld poll last week yielded a median estimate of 4% for December headline inflation, within the BSP’s 3.6-4.4% forecast for the month. This is slightly slower than 4.1% in November but significantly below 8.1% in December 2022.

If realized, December could mark the first time that inflation met the central bank’s 2-4% target after 20 straight months. It would also be the slowest since the 3% print in February 2022.

This would bring the 2023 inflation average to 6%, matching the BSP’s baseline forecast.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release December consumer price index data on Friday.

SALARY INCREASES are expected to be higher in the Philippines this year, amid growing demand for professionals and elevated inflation, according to global professional services firm Mercer.

In its Total Remuneration Survey conducted last year, Mercer said Philippine-based organizations projected a median salary hike of 6.2% in 2024, slightly higher than the actual 6% salary increase last year. 

It is also above the projected average median salary increase of 5.2% in Asia for 2024.

“The projected hike in median salary increment can be attributed to factors such as the rising demand for skilled professionals, the need to attract and retain top talent in a fiercely competitive job market, and persistent inflationary pressures,” Mercer said in a statement.

The expected median salary increase in the Philippines is the fourth highest in the region, just behind India (9.3%), Vietnam (7%), and Indonesia (6.5%).

The country surpassed the projected median salary increments in Mainland China (5.2%), Malaysia (5.1%), Thailand (4.7%), South Korea (4.4%), and Singapore (4.2%).

Meanwhile, Hong Kong SAR (2.6%), Taiwan (3.8%) and Japan (3.9%) reported the lowest projected median salary increments in the region.

Floriza I. Molon, business leader at Mercer Philippines, said that most industries are seen to ramp up hiring as businesses expand this year.

“The Philippines is poised for economic growth despite some global headwinds. Some industries will continue to hire as businesses, particularly in shared services and outsourcing industry, retail and consumer sectors expand,” Ms. Molon said.

Mercer said salary increases will likely be consistent in most industries this year, as firms seek to retain talent.

The energy sector is seen to raise salaries by 7% this year, the highest among industries in the Philippines, data from Mercer showed. This is the same as the 7% hike implemented in 2023.

The high-technology industry is expected to hike salaries by 6.8%, a tad higher than the actual 6.5% increase last year.

Firms in retail and wholesale will increase wages by 6.7%, slightly higher than last year’s 6.5%.

Consumer goods firms will hike wages by 6.5%, faster than the 6% implemented last year.

“Besides compensation, companies would need to reassess their total rewards programs focusing on the employee benefits and work experience,” Ms. Molon said.

Citing Mercer Global Talent Trends 2023 report, Ms. Molon said that employees prefer to stay with organizations that offer job security, work flexibility and high pay.

“Employees are also expecting benefits and career opportunities within their organizations. The ability to provide these creates a more holistic and strategic management on talent in the workplace,” she added.

China Banking Corp. Chief Economist Domini S. Velasquez said businesses will likely provide higher salary increases as inflation remains elevated.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) expected inflation to have averaged 6% in 2023. It sees inflation averaging 3.7% in 2024.

“The rise in inflation could prompt businesses to provide higher compensation to offset the increased cost of living for Filipinos,” Ms. Velasquez said in a Viber message.

“Moreover, the approved minimum wage hikes in 2023 would further contribute to the upward trend in average wages for individuals earning above the minimum wage,” she added.

Ms. Velasquez said the wage increases should not “exacerbate” inflation and be balanced out by improving worker productivity.

“One key factor in achieving this balance is the improvement of worker productivity. As businesses recover from the impact of the pandemic and economic activities gradually increase, it is anticipated that Filipino workers will demonstrate higher productivity levels,” she said.

Meanwhile, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said that implementing salary increases will not only allow businesses to be competitive but also allow the Philippines to catch up with its regional peers in terms of per capita income.

“Given the fact that the Philippines is still among the fastest-growing economies in Asia, it still has relatively lower per capita incomes and is yet to catch up with other neighboring countries,” he said.

“Essentially the demand-supply balance of talent is a major determinant for wage growth in view of local or overseas employment choices for local talents,” he added. — Justine Irish D. Tabile

THE MAHARLIKA Investment Corp. (MIC), which is tasked to oversee the Philippines’ first sovereign wealth fund, is looking at potential investments in key sectors such as infrastructure, energy and transportation.

The MIC held its first board meeting on Wednesday, as it seeks to fully operationalize the Maharlika Investment Fund (MIF), according to a statement from the Department of Finance (DoF).

MIC President and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Rafael Jose D. Consing, Jr. said that the wealth fund could potentially invest in the power, agroforestry industrial urbanization, mineral processing, tourism, transportation, and aviation sectors.

The MIC, which was established under Republic Act (RA) No. 11954, is responsible for mobilizing and utilizing the country’s first sovereign wealth fund for investments in transactions that would generate optimal returns.

“I look forward to your cooperation and support as we work together in mobilizing greater investments in the country’s growth-enhancing sectors, while upholding the highest standards of accountability, fiscal responsibility, and good governance,” Finance Secretary Benjamin E. Diokno told the MIC board during the meeting. He sits as the board’s chairperson in an ex-officio capacity.

“The enactment of the Maharlika Investment Fund complements recent policy initiatives, such as the new public-private partnership policy framework, the approval of 197 high-impact infrastructure flagship projects, and liberalization policies that have further opened the Philippines to foreign investments in key sectors,” Mr. Diokno added.

During the meeting, the board approved the presented MIC’s capitalization scheme amounting to P125 billion.

Under the law, state banks Land Bank of the Philippines (LANDBANK) and Development Bank of the Philippines (DBP) are required to contribute P50 billion and P25 billion, respectively, to the initial capital of the fund.

The National Government is also being counted on to contribute P50 billion. The MIC has an authorized capital stock of P500 billion.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. signed the Maharlika fund bill into law in July despite concerns raised by economists, including questions on the possible negative impact on the operations of state banks.

Mr. Marcos had said last year that the fund would be fully operational by the end of 2023.

“Usually, a day or two does not really matter. However, given the enormous opportunity cost of this fund, every second counts,” Leonardo A. Lanzona, who teaches economics at the Ateneo de Manila University, said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

“So, the three to four days of delay is already weighing heavily on people,” he added.

During the meeting, Mr. Consing was quoted by a Palace statement as saying the investment body will operate with “utmost” openness and “rigorous” accountability.

Mr. Lanzona said these statements are “not enough to convince people about the need” of the wealth fund.

“For one thing, there has been no accounting done as to the negative effects of this fund on the operations of the LANDBANK and DBP,” he added, noting that the fund has significant effects on farmers and small-scale entrepreneurs who rely on the two state banks.

Last year the two banks sought regulatory relief from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas for their contributions to the Maharlika fund.

Also during the meeting, Mr. Consing updated the board on the MIC’s startup activities such as staffing and recruitment and the hiring of its management team.

Aside from Mr. Diokno and Mr. Consing, the MIC board members include LANDBANK President and CEO Ma. Lynette V. Ortiz, DBP President and CEO Michael O. de Jesus, and MIC directors Vicky Castillo L. Tan, Andrew Jerome T. Gan, German Q. Lichauco II, and Roman Felipe S. Reyes.

The board also appointed the Bureau of the Treasury as the interim fund manager of the MIC. 

“I am confident that we have a formidable team to steer the fund effectively towards transformative investments for the Philippine economy,” Mr. Diokno said.

The MIC’s next board meeting is scheduled in the fourth week of January. — Keisha B. Ta-asan and Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza

MANILA Electric Co. (Meralco) has started seeking bidders for 660 megawatts (MW) of capacity as it expects power demand to increase in the summer months.

In a statement on Thursday, the power distributor said the capacities up for bidding will cover its 260-MW peaking requirement and 400-MW baseload requirement this year.

Meralco’s share price rose by 0.76% or P3 to close at P397 each.

The Department of Energy has issued a certificate of conformity for the interim power supply deals.

Meralco said the competitive selection process “considers the need for additional available capacities to augment supply to customers.”

Under the setup, distribution utilities must choose the cheapest electricity supply through bidding. Bidders have until Jan. 15 to submit expressions of interest.

A pre-bid conference will be held on Jan. 22, while the deadline to submit bids for the 260-MW and 400-MW capacities was set for Feb. 26 and 27, respectively.

Last year, Meralco started seeking bidders for 1,800-MW and 1,200-MW baseload capacities.  The 1,800-MW competitive selection process aims to find new suppliers for electricity that was supposed to be supplied by the two units of San Miguel Power Global Holdings Corp. — Excellent Energy Resources, Inc. and Masinloc Power Partners Co. Ltd.

Their contracts with Meralco were terminated in March after their power supply agreement  application went past the deadline.

Excellent Energy and Masinloc Power were supposed to start delivering electricity by 2024 and 2025 after securing the supply contracts in 2021.

Six entities expressed interest in the bidding for the 1,800-MW capacity — GNPower Dinginin Ltd. Co., First NatGas Power Corp., SP New Energy Corp., Mariveles Power Generation Corp., Excellent Energy, and Masinloc Power.

Meanwhile, the 1,200-MW capacity is meant to replace the terminated power supply deals with South Premiere Power Corp., Solar Philippines Batangas Baseload Corp., and Sual Power, Inc., used to be called San Miguel Energy Corp.

The bid deadline for the 1,800-MW capacity was on Dec. 26, and Jan. 23 for the 1,200-MW supply.

Meralco’s controlling stakeholder, Beacon Electric Asset Holdings, Inc., is partly owned by PLDT Inc. Hastings Holdings, Inc., a unit of PLDT Beneficial Trust Fund subsidiary MediaQuest Holdings, Inc., has an interest in BusinessWorld through the Philippine Star Group, which it controls. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera

In a statement on Thursday, the company said unit Irradiation Solutions, Inc. would start commercial operations in March with the launch of the P700-million e-beam cold storage facility.

The facility is in the equipment installation and commission phase. Once completed, it has the capacity to decontaminate and sterilize 20,000 tons of food products and medical devices annually.   

E-beam technology offers a cost-effective and safe method for treating goods, according to A Brown.

“E-beam technology is recognized for its environmental friendliness, leaving no chemical residues, and is scientifically proven effective in decontaminating food and sterilizing medical equipment,” it said.

“The technology ensures high product throughput and stands as a sustainable alternative to traditional heat and chemical treatments,” it added.

The construction of the facility is in line with Irradiation Solutions’ vision of becoming a cornerstone for the Philippine economy, A Brown said. “It is designed to enhance the operations of local businesses and ensure product compliance with international export requirements.”

Irradiation Solutions President Paul B. Juat remains optimistic despite delays in the facility’s completion due to weather and supply chain disruptions, it said.

The facility started construction in April 2022, with commercial operations initially expected to begin by the third quarter of last year.   

“Our team’s resilience has kept us on track,” Mr. Juat said. “We are confident that the completion of this project will significantly improve the Philippines’ export capabilities. This is significant for the Philippine fruit and fisheries sector, which faces challenges in adhering to stringent international standards of product quality and safety.”

A Brown Chairman Walter Brown said the facility would empower local businesses and help them tap foreign markets.   

“We’re looking forward to the operational phase of our facility,” he said. “Our goal is to empower local businesses, helping them reach international markets more effectively. This facility is not just an investment in technology; it’s an investment in the Philippine economy and its people.”

Shares of A Brown, a real estate company with mixed-use, nature-themed developments in Mindanao and Luzon, gained 4.62% or three centavos to 68 centavos each. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

In separate advisories posted on its website, the corporate regulator flagged One 1Key Progress Booster, Inc. (OKPB) and Goldia by Shine, which are both registered with the commission.   

The certificates of registration of the two entities only grant juridical personality but do not empower them to sell securities without an approved registration statement, the SEC said.

It added that people or groups claiming to represent Power Apps under the registration of OKPB were urging the public to invest by paying a P1,000 membership fee.   

“Once registered, the member becomes part of the second business of OKPB which they refer to as ‘quest,’ whereby an investment of P5,000 will guarantee a return of 50% in just 15 days,” it said. “There is no proof of the invested money. However, the names are written on the logbook with the corresponding amount invested.”

The SEC said OKPB uses a scheme where investors could also invest P100,000 and earn 300% to 400% interest after five to 10 days.   

“Investors were advised that the operation will only last until the end of this year, but assured the members that their shares will be transferred to a new company and that it will still earn but not as much as 50% of the investment made,” the regulator said.

“Allegedly, this is to get away from paying big taxes to the Bureau of Internal Revenue,” it added.

Meanwhile, the SEC said Goldia by Shine, which is under the registered license of Fujesan Distribution Corp., claims to be selling jewelry from Hong Kong and Bangkok at low prices.   

The entity allegedly offers compensation plans with investments ranging from P20,000 to P300,000 with a promise of return of 5-8% monthly interest.    

“The public is made aware that an investment contract, which is a kind of security, exists when there is an investment or placement of money in a common enterprise with a reasonable expectation of profits to be derived from the efforts of others, which is prominent in the scheme of Goldia by Shine,” the SEC said. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

1 of 4

A STAR-STUDDED lineup awaits music lovers as both local and international acts are gearing up to perform on stage throughout the year. Whether it’s pop favorites, balladeers, rock bands, rap trailblazers, or indie darlings, there will be something for everyone up ahead.

Here is a rundown of live music this year — so far.

Yesung’s Unfading Sense
Jan. 6

The Korean singer and member of veteran K-pop group Super Junior, Yesung will stage his solo show, Unfading Sense, following the release of his solo album of the same name in October 2023. He will be performing at the New Frontier Theater in Cubao, Quezon City.

Circus Music Festival 3
Jan. 6 – 7

Over at the Circuit Makati Events Grounds, the third part in the Circus Music Festival series kicks off on Jan. 6 and 7. It has Ely Buendia headlining on the first day, along with acts like Juan Karlos, Silent Sanctuary, Armi Millare, Mayonnaise, 6Cyclemind, and many more. On the second day, the headliners are Parokya ni Edgar and Kamikazee, with musicians like Zack Tabudlo, Al James, Unique Salonga, Sponge Cola, and more keeping the ball rolling.

Seventeen’s FOLLOW
Jan. 13 – 14

K-pop boy group Seventeen is returning to the country for a two-night concert this January at the Philippine Sports Stadium at Ciudad de Victoria in Bocaue, Bulacan, as part of their FOLLOW concert tour. However, members Jeonghan and S. COUPS will be absent due to “rehabilitation treatment and recovery” from injuries.

Mark Tuan’s The Other Side
Jan. 14

Rapper and GOT7 member Mark Tuan will be performing at the SM North EDSA Skydome on Jan. 14 for the Asian leg of his The Other Side tour. His show is organized by concert promoter PULP Live World.

Nyoy Volante and Klarisee de Guzman
Jan. 19

Star Magic Music Room presents Nyoy Volante, considered by some to be the “King of Philippine Acoustic Pop,” and Soul singer Klarisse de Guzman collaborating for a show this January. It will take place at the Vue Bar of the Bellevue Manila Hotel in Muntinlupa.

Coldplay’s Music of the Spheres
Jan. 19 – 20

British rock band Coldplay’s Music of the Spheres world tour will be making a stop in the Philippines — their second-ever visit — this time performing at the Philippine Arena at Ciudad de Victoria in Bocaue, Bulacan, for two nights. OPM singer Jikamarie will be the opening act for both nights.

NCT 127’s The Unity
Jan. 21

K-pop group NCT 127 will be flying in this month for their third tour, The Unity. The nine-member boy group will be performing at Bulacan’s Philippines Sports Stadium, brought to the country by PULP Live World.

Melanie Martinez’s PORTALS
Jan. 23

Alternative-pop singer-songwriter Melanie Martinez will stage a show at the World Trade Center in Pasay City. Her tour, Portals, is named after her newest album which she is promoting. It will be a standing-room only concert.

The Rose’s Dawn to Dusk
Jan. 26

South Korean indie-rock band The Rose is returning to the Philippines a year after their first visit, this time taking the stage of Araneta Coliseum in Cubao, Quezon City. In addition to concert tickets, they are allowing meet-and-greets, soundcheck access, Q&A sessions, and exclusive merchandise for VIP packages.

The Jets
Jan. 26 and 27

The Jets, the American 1980s family pop band, known for hits like “Crush on You,” “You Got It All,” and many more, is returning to the country for a two-night concert. They will be performing at the Newport Performing Arts Theater at Newport City in Pasay City.

Brent Faiyaz’s It’s A Wasteland
Jan. 28

Live Nation PH is bringing R&B singer-songwriter Brent Faiyaz to the Philippines for a one-night performance at the New Frontier Theater in Cubao, Quezon City. It will be the Manila stop of his It’s A Wasteland tour.

ENHYPEN’s Fate
Feb. 3

The seven-piece K-pop boy group ENHYPEN will be back in the country over a year after their first visit. On Feb. 3, they will make history as the first act to individually headline a show at the New Clark City Stadium in Tarlac which is part of their Fate tour in Asia.

Mr. Streisand
Feb. 10

Some of the country’s best singers — Michael de Mesa, Arman Ferrer, Audie Gemora, Franco Laurel, Jett Pangan, and Michael Williams — will perform in a concert featuring a repertoire of Barbra Streisand songs. With stage direction by Mark Bautista and music direction by Rony Fortich, the concert will be held at the Music Museum at the Greenhills Shopping Center in San Juan.

SCRUBB
Feb. 10

Thai duo Scrubb, composed of Thawatpon Wongboonsiri and Torpong Chantabubpha, will be in the Philippines in February. Their concert will take place at the 123 Block Mandala Park in Mandaluyong.

ILYSM… A Valentine Harana Concert
Feb. 13

This multi-act concert at the Smart Araneta Coliseum features Arthur Nery, Adie, Rob Deniel, MRLD, Janine Tenoso,  and Rhodessa, with special guest, Alamat.

Julia Fordham’s A Valentine Concert
Feb. 16

For the season of love, Julia Fordham will be holding a concert on Feb. 16 with “Asia’s Romantic Balladeer” Christian Bautista as guest. A Valentine Concert will be held at The Theater at Solaire in Parañaque.

Sungha Jung
Feb. 16

Korean acoustic singer and guitar player Sungha Jung will return to the country to serenade Filipino audiences on Feb. 16 at the SM Skydome, SM City North EDSA in Quezon City. The show is organized by KBeam Events.

Rivermaya’s The Reunion
Feb. 17

Filipino alt-rock band Rivermaya is digging deep into their three-decade-long career and bringing back the original lineup to play their biggest hits. Bamboo Mañalac, Rico Blanco, Nathan Azarcon, and Mark Escueta will take the stage and perform together for the first time since the late 1990s at the SMDC Festival Grounds in Parañaque.

Jonas Brothers’ Five Albums. One Night.
Feb. 22

Those who grew up as Disney kids will be thrilled to relive those memories at the Jonas Brothers’ Manila concert on Feb. 22 at the Mall of Asia Arena in Parañaque. Ovation Productions is bringing the Five Albums. One Night world tour to Manila.

Bobapalooza Music and Arts Festival
Feb. 24 – 25

The second edition of the Bobapalooza Music and Arts Festival will be bigger than the inaugural edition last year according to its organizers. International headliners Pale Waves and The Band Camino are coming to play while the local lineup boasts heavy hitters like Juan Karlos, Itchyworms, Urbandub, Sandwich, Chicosci, Syd Hartha, Rico Blanco, and more. It will take place at the Filinvest City Events Grounds in Muntinlupa City.

Eric Moo
March 1

To start off March, the Malaysian-Chinese singer Eric Moo will bring his Mandopop ballads live to the Newport Performing Arts Theater in Pasay City.

Jeff Satur’s Space Shuttle No. 8
March 2

The Manila leg of Thai singer-actor Jeff Satur’s Space Shuttle No. 8 Asia Tour will be held at the New Frontier Theater in Quezon City, care of Live Nation PH.

Ed Sheeran’s +-=÷×
March 9

Irish pop sensation Ed Sheeran will be bringing his +-=÷× tour (pronounced Mathematics tour) to Manila. He will be playing at the SMDC Festival Grounds in Parañaque with special guest Calum Scott.

Wanderland Music and Arts Festival
March 9 – 10

For its 10^th edition, Wanderland will be returning to the Filinvest City Events Grounds in Alabang. Beach rock singer Jack Johnson will headline day one, leading performers like Novo Amor, Parcels, Ena Mori, Paolo Sandejas, Jeff Bernat, Beenzino, and more. The day two lineup has yet to be announced.

wave to earth’s The First Era
March 11 and 13

Korean indie band wave to earth is returning to Manila in March. As part of their The First Era tour, they will have a two-day concert on March 11 and 13 at the New Frontier Theater in Quezon City. The act added the second show after tickets for the March 11 concert quickly sold out.

Slash’s The River Is Rising
March 12

Slash of Guns N’ Roses will once again visit Manila, this time with Myles Kennedy and The Conspirators, a group made up of Alter Bridge guitarist Myles Kennedy, Todd Kerns, Brent Fitz, and Frank Sidoris. The guitar-heavy rock concert will be held at the New Frontier Theater in Quezon City.

Rod Stewart’s One Last Time
March 13

Rod Stewart, one of the bestselling pop-rock performers of all time, will be back in the Philippines to perform many of his beloved hits. His one-night only show will be in March at the Mall of Asia Arena in Parañaque.

Janet Jackson’s Together Again World Tour
March 13

Pop-R&B superstar Janet Jackson will be back in Manila for the first time in over a decade. She is bringing her Together Again world tour to the Smart Araneta Coliseum in Cubao, Quezon City.

Malasimbo Music and Arts Festival
March 15 – 17

The Malasimbo Music and Arts Festival will again be held in Puerto Galera, Mindoro, marking the festival’s comeback since it was last held in 2020. It will feature Ichika Nito, Dilaw, the Blue Rats, and other performers.

PULP SUMMER SLAM XX: Worlds Collide
March 23

The first Pulp Summer Slam since the COVID-19 pandemic hit will feature foreign metal bands Parkway Drive, Story of the Year, Fleshgod Apocalypse, Rolling Quartz, Prompts, and more. It will take place at the Amoranto Stadium in Quezon City.

James Taylor
April 8

Singer-songwriter James Taylor is bringing his timeless classics to fans in Manila for the first time in almost three decades. His show is set to take place at the Mall of Asia Arena in Parañaque.

Boys Like Girls
April 20

American rock band Boys Like Girls is bringing their Spring concert tour to the Philippines with a one-night show at the Smart Araneta Coliseum in Quezon City.

Incubus
April 25

The distinct 1990s and early 2000s sound of the American rock band Incubus will again be held live in the Philippines in April. Brandon Boyd and the rest of the band last performed in the country in 2018. This time the Manila leg of their Asia tour will be at the Smart Araneta Coliseum in Quezon City.

Niall Horan’s The Show
May 13

Irish soloist of One Direction fame Niall Horan will be in the country in May for his The Show world tour. Organized by Live Nation PH, his Mall of Asia Arena concert is taking place on May 13.

IVE’s Show What I Have
July 13

Starship Entertainment’s leading girl group IVE is returning to Manila for their first world tour, Show What I Have. The show, care of Live Nation PH, will be held at the Mall of Asia Arena on July 13. — Brontë H. Lacsamana

The Boy and the Heron — perhaps Miyazaki’s final film, done with economy and passion and a surfeit of fabulous imagery.

Killers of the Flower Moon — Less a depiction of the Native American victims (which I suspect Scorsese couldn’t presume to speak up for) than a blackly comic takedown of the thugs that preyed on them. At its emotional heart: the strange strangely moving Judas-Jesus relationship between Ernest Burkhart (a deftly dimwitted Leonardo DiCaprio) and his Osage wife Mollie (an understated Lily Gladstone).

Essential Truths of the Lake — Lav Diaz’s first-ever prequel follows the early adventures of Hermes Papauran, the “Philippines’ greatest investigator” — basically a detective with a philosophical bent and a gift for guilt-wracked obsessive brooding. He never lets go and neither does Diaz, in this latest meditation on the Marcos dictatorship.

May December — Todd Haynes’ unsettling look at tabloid narratives (in this case the Mary Kay Letourneau story) and the secrets they may or may not contain.

Asteroid City — Wes Anderson doesn’t indulge in the usual film bro cliches — guns and assassins and fast cars — but takes off in a trajectory all his own. The immersion in 1950s Space Age paraphernalia makes this a perfect double feature with Richard Linklater’s Apollo 10 ½

Infinity Pool — Brandon Cronenberg eschews his father’s clean pornographic style to do a more baroque version of John Frankenheimer’s Seconds, the true source of horror less the fleshy onscreen mutilations and more Mia Goth’s mesmerizing hold over Alexander Skarsgard.

Past Lives — Celine Song’s debut feature is quiet but graceful; the finale, an extended tracking shot along an East Village sidewalk, is unexpectedly potent.

The Holdovers — Alexander Payne and Paul Giamatti’s latest isn’t visually distinctive but does evoke lowkey emotional magic, and delivers the occasional sting.

The Killer — David Fincher at his more elliptical, more a sterile exercise of style and stylish performances than anything. Not quite Jean-Pierre Melville, master of the genre, but not bad either.

Silent Night — Man loses his son and his voice, takes a year to prepare for payback. Grimmer less stylish John Woo that nevertheless retains his spark.

Anatomy of a Fall — Justine Triet’s legal drama with the help of Sandra Huller slowly carefully compellingly assembles the portrait of a marriage that has slid sideways, throws enough uncertainty into the process that like a juror you’re not sure what verdict to deliver.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 — James Gunn’s darkest entry of the franchise, yet still manages to be laugh out loud funny. Gunn has a gift for depicting damaged characters, makes good use of that skill here.

Godzilla Minus One — Back and badder than ever, only the humans swarming at its feet are depicted with more care than usual. Arguably the best since Hideaki Anno’s majestic 2016 incarnation, Gareth Edwards’s coyer 2014 version, and the still unmatched 1954 original. Not a fan, alas, of the have-your-cake-and-eat-it ending.

The Exorcist Believer — David Gordon Green doing to The Exorcist what he did to Halloween, picking up a well-loved horror classic and subverting its assumptions. If you’re not a fan of the William Friedkin original (which I’m not) this is for you. Easily the best of the franchise since Exorcist 2: The Heretic.

The Creator — Derivative (of Neon Genesis Evangelion, Blade Runner, and Platoon) and illogical (Why develop a floating weapons platform so vast anyone can take a potshot? And why build a counter weapon that has to grow gradually into full power?) but the core narrative — of a haunted man’s developing affection for a foundling child — is effective.

Meg 2: The Trench — The first hour is trapped underwater and dimly lit; when the movie surfaces and hits land it morphs into goofy fun, a cross between Jurassic Park and Free Fire.

Napoleon — More sumptuous and expensive looking than elegant, the movie emphasizes Napoleon the lovestruck buffoon over the brilliant strategist and innovative statesman, which leads one to ask: couldn’t they depict the strategist and leader and then demonstrate why he’s still a buffoon? Not as passionate or endlessly creative as Abel Gance’s prodigious classic.

Barbie — The first 20 minutes is a witty parody of Barbie and her neon pink world; the remaining runtime is a satire on male entitlement and corporate mismanagement with the fangs pulled, a neat-as-any demonstration of The Golden Rule: he who makes the gold (in this case Mattel, who financed) makes the rules.

Oppenheimer — Historical testimony, biographical study, investigative noir; drop in a blender and hit “puree.” Christopher Nolan is consistent — when it comes to the money shot (a leap across an abyss, a stage trick involving magic cabinets, the detonating of the first-ever nuclear fission device) he cuts away to a different angle. A mess, and not in a good way.

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny — Another I liked more for the what might have been than what is — if you liked Indy, this is a passable capstone; if you like crisp and inventive action sequences, you miss the Spielberg touch.

The Flash — Better than expected, mostly for the melancholic presence of Michael Keaton and his air of What Might Have Been. Otherwise disposable.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse — everyone talks about how revolutionary it is to digitally animate on 2s (12 drawings or “frames” per second) as opposed to the standard-issue 1s (24 frames per second) — in effect moving away from the smooth and photorealistic — and how difficult this is to do with computers when the Japanese (including Shinkai, warts and all) have been and still do this all the time, largely by hand and in far better films. Miles Morales is a groundbreaking character — at least on the comic book page — but his film incarnation feels too wholesome, like a Disney princess in drag (mind you I’d welcome a Disney princess in drag, just lose the 2% lowfat wholesomeness).

Suzume — Makoto Shinkai continues to ape Miyazaki’s images, characters, and concepts, everything from Spirited Away (protagonist’s beloved cursed into taking another form, if not pigs then a nursery chair) to Howl’s Moving Castle (portals that open into different locations or the past), troweling rough edges smooth with a thick serving of sentimentality. Emotionally stunted work, fixated on fantasy encounters between boy and girl at the expense of all else.

Films I’ve found interesting:

Dust Devil (1992) — Richard Stanley’s hallucinatory film — about a serial killer demon, the woman he’s fated to meet, and the Namibian police officer hunting him — seems less affected by supernatural forces than by heat haze and highway hypnosis. Fascinatingly unhinged.

Experiment Perilous (1944) — Jacques Tourneur’s take on George Cukor’s Gaslight is hobbled by a smaller budget and an ostensibly less-than-stellar cast but does feature Tourneur’s inimitably insinuating visual style and a simmering pas de deux between George Brent and twinkle-eyed Paul Lukas.

The Suspect (1944) — Robert Siodmak’s camera stalks Charles Laughton as he spirals into mayhem and murder in this sumptuously produced Edwardian noir.

 The Furies (1950) — Walter Huston as a carnivorous King Lear and Barbara Stanwyck as his libidinous Cordelia dominate this larger-than-life psychodrama set against the backdrop of Anthony Mann’s West — a landscape of vast plains and craggy heights that reflect the characters’ emotional landscape.

Could not with much regret keep up with the always vital Filipino independent filmmaking scene — that’s my fault — but thanks to a recent project on Filipino-Asian collaborations have been able to catch the following:

Dawn of Freedom (Ano Hata O Ute, 1944) — Yutaka Abe and Gerardo de Leon’s handsomely produced propaganda film employs Manila like a gigantic studio set, yet details the tentative at times mistrustful relationship between Filipinos and their Japanese occupiers with surprising delicacy.

Shiniuma (Dead Horse, 2016) — Brillante Mendoza’s haiku depicting an undocumented Filipino worker’s life in Hokkaido, his capture by immigrant officers, and his eventual Manila homecoming. With an indelible performance by Lou Veloso.

Gensan Punch — Brillante Mendoza’s biopic of “Nao” Tsuchiyama depicts a one-legged boxing champion full of grit and spirit and a startling sweetness.

 A Hard Day — Law Fajardo’s remake of the Kim Seong-hun original, about a corrupt cop trying to fix his fractured life, is a fascinating study on what can translate from Korean to Filipino setting, and what can’t.

Kintsugi — Law Fajardo’s romance between a Filipino immigrant worker and the daughter of his Japanese boss is both a showcase for the charms of Saga prefecture (and its renowned ceramicware) and a quietly poignant romance.

Imbisibol (Invisible) — Arguably Fajardo’s best work, from a one-act play by Herlyn Alegre, an observant and ultimately devastating look at Filipino migrants, documented and undocumented, in bleak wintertime Japan.

WHERE TO WATCH THE SHOW
The Golden Globes will be broadcast live from the Beverly Hilton starting at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT (0100 GMT on Monday) on CBS, a new network after years airing on NBC. The awards will also be streamed live on Paramount+ for subscribers who pay for the Showtime add-on. Other Paramount+ customers can stream the show the next day.

WHO IS THE HOST?
American stand-up comedian Jo Koy will host the Globes, his first hosting role for a major awards show. Koy, who is of Filipino heritage, has had stand-up specials on Comedy Central and Netflix and recently took his act on the Funny Is Funny World Tour.

WHICH FILMS AND TV SHOWS LEAD NOMINATIONS?Pink-drenched movie phenomenon Barbie topped the list of nominees, outpacing the eight for historical drama Oppenheimer. But the two films — which featured in a summer box office clash dubbed “Barbenheimer” — will compete in different categories at the Globes. Barbie vies for best comedy or musical, while Oppenheimer competes for best drama.

In television categories, media dynasty drama Succession led all series with nine nominations, followed by the restaurant comedy The Bear with five.

WHO IS FAVORED TO WIN?
Oppenheimer, directed by Christopher Nolan, is heavily favored to win best film drama, according to experts on prediction website Gold Derby, edging out Killers of the Flower Moon, directed by Martin Scorsese.

Barbie, directed by Greta Gerwig, is also the clear frontrunner in best film comedy or musical, followed by gothic comedy Poor Things.

In acting awards, Native American star Lily Gladstone is favored to win best drama actress for her role in Killers of the Flower Moon and Bradley Cooper is the frontrunner to win best film drama actor for his role as conductor Leonard Bernstein in Maestro, which he also directed.

Emma Stone is the favorite for best film comedy/musical actress for her role in Poor Things, while Paul Giamatti leads the field for best film comedy/musical actor for The Holdovers.

Christopher Nolan is heavily favored to win best director for Oppenheimer.

In TV series, Succession is expected to win drama series as is The Bear in comedy series.

MORE DIVERSE SLATE OF NOMINEES
After criticism for a lack of diversity in past years, an expanded group of Globe voters nominated two female directors: Gerwig and Past Lives director Celine Song. Acting nominees included Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon, gay Black American Rustin actor Colman Domingo, and Black American lead Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction.

Fantasia Barrino and Danielle Brooks were nominated for their roles in The Color Purple, but the story of Black Americans living in the early 1900s was left out of the race for best movie musical or comedy.

There are 27 first-time nominees.

NEW AWARDS CATEGORIES
The Globes introduced two new categories this year: TV stand-up comedy performance and cinematic and box office achievement.

EXPANDED VOTING MEMBERSHIP
After a 2021 Los Angeles Times investigation revealed that the Hollywood Foreign Press Association lacked diversity and some members engaged in ethical lapses, voting membership this year has expanded to 300 journalists from 75 countries around the world and 60% racial and ethnic diversity.

WHO ARE THE NEW OWNERS?
In June 2023, Eldridge Industries purchased the Golden Globe assets with Dick Clark Productions (DCP), which will continue to manage the awards telecast and focus on expanding the Globes’ viewership around the world. DCP is co-owned by Eldridge and Penske Media. The Golden Globes are now a for-profit venture.

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association was shut down as a consequence. — Reuters

In an appearance on One News this week, Mr. Laguesma said the P750 minimum wage hike proposal, which requires at least a P150 raise across all industries, will be difficult for some small businesses, noting that 96% of enterprises are micro and small firms.

“A careful balance is needed because the needs of workers alone are not the only consideration,” he said. “It might be challenging for business owners to comply even if they want to.”

The P150 wage increase proposal is pending in both the Senate and House of Representatives, with Senator Juan Miguel  F. Zubiri and Party-list Rep. Raymond Democrito C. Mendoza, and the Makabayan bloc pushing for national implementation through legislation, bypassing the current regional wage-board system.

Speaking to BusinessWorld, Nagkaisa Labor Coalition Chairman and Federation of Free Workers (FFW) President Jose G. Matula argued that industries can afford the suggested P150 across-the-board increase, which would represent a 24.6% raise from the current highest regional wage of P610 in Metro Manila.

He said higher pay hikes have been implemented via legislation before, citing 1989’s Republic Act No. 6727 or the Wage Rationalization Act, which ordered a P25 hike, equivalent to a 39.06% raise over the P64 national minimum wage. Mr. Matula said that wage hike did not cause companies to close.

Partido Manggagawa said the negative impact of the wage hike on certain businesses will be short term, with businesses expected to thrive in the long run if workers step up their consumption on the back of higher pay.

“In the short term their profit margins might be affected, but still, they can profit,” Partido Manggagawa Chairman Renato Magtubo said in a Viber message. “It’s not a good national policy for the country to maintain depressed wages so that employers continue to profit from workers’ labor.”

In a separate interview, FFW Vice-President Julius H. Cainglet said that the wage hike is a justified response to the government’s failure to control prices of goods and services.

“Workers have long been languishing on poverty wages. For decades since the enactment of the Wage Rationalization Act, the balance has always tilted in favor of employers. This is but one time in the last 35 years that the balance will tilt in favor of workers,” he said. — Jomel R. Paguian

It is reassuring to read that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) continues to sharpen its analytical tools particularly on predicting potential financial crisis and presenting a more detailed inflation outlook for more reliable forecasting. A good handle on the future is the heart and soul of the BSP’s flexible inflation targeting.

Reassuring, yes, because the BSP has not ceased producing more and more analytical tools for the macroeconomy and stress testing methodologies for surveillance of the banking system. Quite a mouthful, but all of these initiatives should further enhance the batting average of the BSP in projecting inflation and deciding on the most fitting monetary policy stance.

To be hawkish, or to be dovish, is not a question of fashion, or cut and paste, but a result of careful assessment of both past, current, and future data. It’s obvious that when the BSP can confidently manage price movements in the Philippines, we benefit from such positive consequences as more sustainable economic growth, more competitive exchange rate, and a more investment-friendly economic environment. Price stability also reinforces the economy’s resiliency to both global and domestic shocks.

But there’s something that BSP Governor Eli Remolona cited recently that should further keep the BSP economists and researchers busy in the next few years. He said: “We need to do what I call narrative identification. It’s not enough to have an index that’s based on averages. We have to somehow calibrate them so that they actually predict the crisis, especially our own crisis.”

The narrative approach, if applied to macroeconomic identification, uses qualitative sources of data and information like, but not limited to, newspapers, government records, or, in the case of central banks like the BSP, transcripts of Monetary Board meetings. This ragtag group of sources can provide information crucial in establishing causal relationships.

The husband-wife team of David H. Romer and Christina D. Romer, both of the University of California, Berkeley, employed this methodology first in 1989 in looking into the impact of monetary policy by reading the historical minutes and transcripts of the Federal Reserve Board meetings on monetary policy and incorporating these to statistical analysis. They opted for this approach to deal with the common problem of omitted variable bias to consider a more complete set of relevant explanatory factors.

In her January 2023 presidential address before the American Economic Association in New Orleans, Ms. Romer explained that their methodology allowed them to identify precisely “a subset of monetary actions that were not motivated by other factors affecting output.” The behavior of output following the US Fed monetary shocks “would provide relatively unbiased estimates of the impact of monetary policy.”

For economists, what the Romers are saying is that there are other relevant variables that do affect both output and the motivation of the US Fed to change the course of monetary policy. One common flaw, and this is something that both economists and non-economists are guilty of, is when one concludes that monetary policy does not matter when we see it morphing from hawk to dove without any perceptible effect on business activities.

Auspicious as it was, Ms. Romer’s presidential address presented her with the opportunity to revisit their 1989 paper in the context of the recent issue of the US Fed monetary policy allegedly motivating a possible recession in the US. After over three decades, the husband-wife team has learned volumes “about the pitfalls of narrative research” and how to turn it around.

Ms. Romer cited the key ingredients to a more meaningful use of the narrative approach in order to avoid being just “literary,” a term used to discredit their initial 1989 paper. First is the reliability of their source. Their 1989 paper was based on the abridged record of policy actions of the Federal Open Market Committee, or to some, minutes of those Committee meetings. This means they extracted very little information on the motivations of the Fed’s policy actions. With a shorter lag involved before these minutes were made public, the Romers felt that they were “less forthright.”

Their new research is anchored on “very detailed summaries of the discussion with extensive paraphrases, or verbatim transcripts.” As Ms. Romer stressed, they are contemporaneous with the Fed’s monetary policy decisions. With a long lag before the transcripts’ publication, the US Fed governors must have been more open and more forthright.

The second key to a good narrative approach is a clear sense of what one wants to extract from the source. Citing the genius of the iconic Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz in employing the same methodology in their seminal work, A Monetary History of the United States (1963), proponents of the methodology should focus on those instances when monetary policy was undertaken without regard to economic activities, and the effects are expected to be unbiased estimates of causality between monetary policy and economic performance.

One drawback to this general approach is coming up with specific criteria to be used in judging for the period to be considered. It is difficult to tell whether the economy is at, or close to, potential output but it is perhaps even more difficult to determine whether the corresponding inflation target is just right, or needed some adjustment. Ms. Romer then argued that there is a scope for including not only contractionary monetary policy shocks but also expansionary monetary policy shocks. If monetary policy matters, output should be affected upwards.

The team sought to identify significant contractionary and expansionary changes in monetary policy that were not exactly considered to address real sector activities in the United States from 1946 to 2016. Based on this approach, they succeeded in identifying 10 instances when the Fed deliberately adjusted monetary policy to alter the path of business activities. There was only one case where the Fed adjusted monetary policy in response to high inflation. This is not surprising because, as Ms. Romer pointed out, no monetary shock was observed between 1988 and 2016. Even as they included almost 30 years of additional observations, inflation in the US had been steady during that period, until recently.

The Romers’ revisit confirmed most of their original findings with a few tweaks here and there on periodization and interpretations. Building on Friedman and Schwartz’ pioneering work, the Romers incorporated their narrative evidence into a more rigorous statistical technique, the Jordà local projection approach (2005). They admit that there are other statistical techniques available to achieve rigor and unbiased estimates. It was also shown that alternative specifications yielded only minor differences in the results. The results tested robustly.

How does the Romers latest study interpret current monetary conditions and US Fed policy?

For one thing, even as the transcripts of the US Fed monetary policy meetings will not be available until 2028, a reading of the narrative evidence based on the record of such meetings would indicate that the US Fed tightened monetary policy in response to record-high inflation in the last couple of years. The US Fed, on the record, announced that this was unacceptable, so monetary policy must respond. Fed funds target rate has risen a full four percentage points, or 400 basis points, something akin to the 1988 monetary policy action by the US central bank.

Ms. Romer, in her presidential address, was quite fearless in her prognosis of what to expect from such monetary policy action. She said we should not expect inflation to fall rapidly. It’s possible perhaps after two quarters after the shock. If the supply side is favorable, a more rapid decline is likely. From January 2023, the impact on unemployment should be felt throughout the same year. Finally, Ms. Romer suggested that the US Fed was facing a difficult decision on when to stop tightening monetary policy and start reducing the policy rate.

With long and variable lags of monetary actions, it is possible the US Fed might still be tightening until they see a more definitive trend decline in inflation. But that would signal that “they have gone farther than they needed to.” Ms. Romer admitted it’s an impossible call to say how much more monetary policy has to continue, and how much longer interest rates should remain high.

In our previous columns, we made the point that the BSP was correct in fighting inflation until it returns to the 2-4% target. Some of the expected effects of this monetary policy shock include economic moderation and weaker job creation. There is no way by which those factors affecting inflation could not affect output and the labor market.

Yet, we have seen that as the BSP maintains higher interest rate longer, inflation rates in the Philippines seem to have started to gravitate towards the 2-4% inflation target recently. Yet, it must be recognized that the impact on both output and jobs has not been as bad as some quarters expect. The Philippines is expecting output growth close to the lower end of the 6-7% target while the latest jobs statistics indicate lower unemployment and underemployment.

It would bring more completeness to the analysis of inflation and inflation prospects if the BSP would start implementing the call of the Governor in doing the narrative approach in addressing the usual identification problem in macroeconomic research. While other alternative techniques are available, the narrative approach is very promising, though difficult. For instance, it would require the Monetary Board greater understanding for more transparency and forthrightness in allowing the publication of the transcripts of monetary policy meetings. A longer lag may be considered to permit more open and frank discussion of monetary policy.

But we are optimistic that once this is done, inflation management in the Philippines would have a very interesting narrative.

Diwa C. Guinigundo is the former deputy governor for the Monetary and Economics Sector, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). He served the BSP for 41 years. In 2001-2003, he was alternate executive director at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC. He is the senior pastor of the Fullness of Christ International Ministries in Mandaluyong.

The ongoing PhilCare study, which seeks to come up with a profile of Gen Z — the digital-native cohort born in the late 1990s and early 2000s — found that everyday expenses (44%) and homeownership prospects (39%) were their leading challenges.

The survey also found that Gen Z respondents believe they are adequately prepared for retirement (73%) and travel and leisure (65%).

PhilCare, in a separate Gen Z-focused study led by researcher Fernando dlC. Paragas, said 76% of respondents grapple with the responsibility of sharing their earnings with family.

“Companies looking to recruit and retain young talent need to be creative with their benefits to address this need,” Joseph Agustin L. Tanco, PhilCare president and chief executive officer, said in a statement on Thursday.

“Businesses should acknowledge Gen Z’s financial responsibilities toward their families,” he added. “Offering support beyond the standard paycheck could significantly impact their financial wellness.”

Monico V. Jacob, PhilCare chairman, noted that financial wellness programs could be among the employer offerings to aid in such challenges.

“They may also want to explore flexible work arrangements, including remote work options, to ease the financial burden of commuting and onsite work so employees can save money for more important things like housing,” he said. — Miguel Hanz L. Antivola

THE IRIS Alborz, pride of the Iranian navy, isn’t much of a warship. Commissioned in 1971, the frigate is both long in tooth and lacking in teeth: Decades of sanctions have obliged Iran to jerry-rig it with homemade combat systems, well short of the firepower of equivalent vessels in the world’s major naval fleets.

The ship serves important symbolic purposes, though. It is a reminder that the Islamic Republic is a maritime state, if not quite a power. Its armaments, limited as they are, also advertise Iran’s indigenous weapons-making capabilities. When it sails out of its home port of Bandar Abbas on the Persian Gulf, the Alborz projects not power so much as defiance.

Right now, the vessel is serving symbolic functions on the far side of the Arabian Peninsula, as reassurance and recognition for a key ally: the Houthi rebels of Yemen, who have been attacking international shipping on one of the world’s most important sea routes. They have also fired missiles in the direction of Israel, in support of another Iranian ally, Hamas.

The Alborz will not provide them with much protection from the US-led naval flotilla, known as Operation Prosperity Guardian, that is interdicting the Houthis’ missiles and drones, as well as sinking some of their boats. But Tehran is signaling to the rebels that they are not alone.

For Iran, this is an unusually open demonstration of military support for one of its extensive network of allies and proxies in the Middle East. Tehran typically uses cloak and dagger means to train, finance, and arm groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Hashd al-Shaabi in Iraq. In public, Iran’s leaders limit themselves to rhetorical encouragement and approval.

That is how it has been with the Houthis. Tehran developed ties with the rebels long before they burst onto the international scene nearly 10 years ago, by capturing the Yemeni capital Sana’a, and toppling the internationally recognized government. Since then, Iran has supplied the Houthis with increasingly sophisticated missiles and drones, as well as the means to produce them locally.

This support enabled the rebels to defeat an Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia that sought to restore the now exiled government. Tehran’s weapons have also allowed the Houthis to strike deep into Saudi territory, most spectacularly with the 2019 attacks on the kingdom’s oil infrastructure. The Saudis were eventually obliged to sue for peace.     

Throughout, Iran maintained the fiction that the Houthis were acting alone. Only once, in the spring of 2015, did it send a naval flotilla — led by the Alborz, as it happens — to try and break a blockade of Yemeni ports by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. But after the US sent an aircraft carrier group to intercept the flotilla, the Iranians quietly withdrew. Back then, the Houthis were one of Tehran’s lesser proxies, not in the league of Hezbollah or Hamas; the situation didn’t merit the risk of a confrontation with the US.

Iran’s more determined defiance this time on behalf of the Houthis reflects their elevation to the first rank of allies. It is a reward for their humiliation of one of the Iranian regime’s sworn enemies, Saudi Arabia, as well as an appreciation of their utility in the fight against another, Israel.

The promotion is especially timely for Tehran. Its main catspaw against Israel, Hamas, is being severely degraded by the war in Gaza. Iran is reluctant to deploy Hezbollah, partly for fear of depleting its oldest, most powerful client.

Boosting the Houthis makes more sense for Iran because they can be much more disruptive than any of the other proxies — as they have just demonstrated by essentially frightening off commercial shipping from a sea lane that accounts for 12% of world trade.

While Hezbollah’s main utility to Tehran is as the protector of Iranian interests in Lebanon and Syria, and Hamas’ principal purpose is to kill Israelis, the Houthis can wreak economic damage on Iran’s near enemies, the wider world, and, by extension, the US.

It helps the Iranian cause that the Houthis operate with fewer restraints than any other proxy. Unlike Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Hashd al-Shaabi in Iraq, the Yemeni rebels don’t need to manage complex multi-ethnic and multi-sectarian local politics. Unlike Hamas, they are out of reach of the Israeli Defense Forces. They command a large country, with plenty of remote redoubts from which to fire off Iran’s missiles. And their proximity to some of the world’s main sources of energy amplifies their threat potential.

It should surprise nobody, then, if the Houthis grow in Iranian esteem, and eventually match — and perhaps even exceed — Hezbollah. This prospect terrifies Yemen’s Arab neighbors; tellingly, neither Saudi Arabia nor the UAE have dared to join Operation Prosperity Guardian.

For the wider world, responding to the growing Houthi menace will require much more than naval flotillas to the Red Sea. Rather than react to provocations by the rebels and their masters in Tehran, the US and its allies will need to impose restraints on their ability to do harm (see my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Admiral James Stavridis’ recommendations on that score) while strengthening their domestic rivals. The latter include forces loyal to the government in exile and armed elements around Aden, known as the Southern Movement. That would present challenges, such as the inconvenient fact that the Southern Movement seeks separation from Yemen, and that corrupt and inept politicians make up the exiled government.

Given its age and condition, the Alborz’s deployment is likely to be short. It has already fulfilled its symbolic purposes. But long after the frigate’s return to Bandar Abbas, Iran and its newly elevated ally will represent a danger to the Red Sea.

BLOOMBERG OPINION

BANKS’ PROFITS may grow further this year as expectations of elevated benchmark rates until the second half may drive their interest income and as robust economic growth could boost loan demand, analysts said.

“If you’re talking about profitability, higher interest rates will be favorable for them,” Reyes Tacandong & Co. Senior Adviser Jonathan L. Ravelas said in a Viber message.

Banks could see their profits grow by 10-15% as economic growth could spur loan demand, Mr. Ravelas added.

As of end-September 2023, the Philippine banking industry’s net earnings climbed by 11.3% to P272.557 billion, driven by higher interest income and lower losses on financial assets, central bank data showed.

“Considering the prevailing high interest rate environment, the outlook for the banking sector appears favorable. Higher interest rates typically boost NIMs (net interest margins), positively impacting banks’ profitability,” Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan said in a Viber message.

“Overall, a cautious but optimistic stance on the banking sector is advisable, given the current macroeconomic backdrop,” he added.

For her part, First Metro Investment Corp. Head of Research Cristina S. Ulang said bank earnings may have already peaked in 2023.

“For investors and traders, profit opportunity lies in share price volatility driven by positive news flow on easing credit conditions and resilient loan growth,” Ms. Ulang said in a Viber message.

“Borrowing would remain to be constrained and banks would also be challenged in profiting from [loans],” Oikonomia Advisory & Research, Inc. President and Chief Economist John Paolo R. Rivera said in a Viber message.

Elevated interest rates could also lead to higher non-performing loans (NPL), he added.

As of end-October 2023, the banking industry’s gross NPL ratio inched up to a five-month high of 3.44% in October from 3.4% in the previous month and 3.41% a year prior.

This was the highest bad loan ratio since 3.46% in May 2023.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) last month kept its policy rate unchanged at a 16-year high of 6.5% for a second straight meeting.

The central bank raised benchmark interest rates by a cumulative 450 basis points from May 2022 to October 2023 to help bring down elevated inflation.

Even as the market expects the Philippine central bank to begin easing its policy stance within this year, BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. last month said they are unlikely to cut rates in the coming months and is leaning towards keeping borrowing costs higher for longer until inflation is comfortably within their 2-4% annual target.

In the first 11 months of 2023, headline inflation averaged 6.2%, still above the BSP’s 6% forecast and 2-4% goal for the year, latest government data showed. — A.M.C. Sy

You can’t do manpower planning as a standalone program outside of HR planning and the organization’s annual strategic planning exercise, which is a must for every organization. However, it sounds to me that you are making do with what you have in terms of focus and time.

Manpower planning is a critical step in hiring new employees or transferring current ones to more suitable posts so the organization can maximize their contributions. This can’t be done without reference to recruitment, training, compensation, and career development needs.

Without manpower planning, HR may not be in a position to serve the needs of other departments. This means that HR must work closely with others to anticipate their future staffing needs, like nailing down the actual number of workers needed for a particular month of each year, if you want to be specific about it.

OVERSTAFFING, UNDERSTAFFING
No organization can afford to be overstaffed or understaffed. If an organization has more workers than needed, productivity falls — a problem difficult to detect unless management is actively looking.

The same thing can also happen with understaffing, which can cause service or product quality to deteriorate. Understaffing can also increase overtime costs and impose physical strain and stress on overworked employees.

To avoid this, manpower planning must be conducted objectively. HR must be at the forefront of defining worker competencies and the cost of training or other interventions to create the desired result.

For example, in January and February, what do we expect to happen? Off the top of my head — employees may elect to resign or management may initiate temporary rightsizing. Employees, after receiving their yearend bonuses and all their benefits (like exhausting accrued vacation leaves) are prone to moving to other employers.

On the other hand, temporary rightsizing happens when management decides to reduce staffing, including contractuals and agency workers during the first two or three months of the year, when demand for the company’s products or services is low.

Thus, it is a must to raise the following questions:

One, how many employees (both regular and contractual) are needed by the organization to meet its objectives every month, quarterly and on an annual basis?

Two, what jobs will these people need to fill? How many are in operations, sales and marketing, or other departments?

Three, what knowledge, attitudes, skills and habits will new hires and transferees be required to possess?

Four, can we promote people from within rather than hire outsiders? If that’s possible, how do you intend to make it happen?

Five, if you intend on sourcing from a manpower agency, what’s a reasonable ratio to maintain between contractual and regular employees, if only to avoid legal complications?

Six, if you intend to ask agency workers to become part of your regular workforce, how do you intend to assess them?

Seven, what kind of training would you need to offer to minimize the skills gap? If defined, who among your senior employees can train people?

These are some of the basic questions you must explore. The critical questions vary with organizations, depending on their culture, industry positioning, market power and other demands of a competitive environment.

FORECASTING
In conclusion, manpower planning boils down to forecasting, except that it’s not an exact science. Like weather forecasting, it is subject to many uncertainties and inaccuracies. That’s why an HR person needs judgment, supported by input from department managers who know the ins and outs of their staffing requirements.

However, an HR person should be cautious about relying too much on the ideas of these department managers, who could be engaging in empire building. They may hold the mistaken belief that having more employees ensure quality and productivity.

If you want to test this proposition, try computing that department’s turnover rate. You’ll soon discover the truth about every manager’s claims.

Bring Rey Elbo’s leadership program called Superior Subordinate Supervision to your team. For details or other workplace questions, chat with him on Facebook, LinkedIn, X (Twitter) or e-mail elbonomics@gmail.com or via https://reyelbo.com

Happiness is abstract. It means different things to many individuals. It is a state of being, a fleeting emotion, a decision, a sense of balance between joy and despair, somewhere between ecstasy and delight. It could be the absence of pain, relief from pressure, or healing from illness.

The philosopher Lao Tzu once wrote, “By letting it go all gets done. The world is won by those who let it go. But when you try and try, the world is beyond winning.”

To be happy, we should change our attitude towards life, relationships, people, and, most importantly, oneself. It may be very difficult to struggle with ego and pride, but it is worth trying.

Here are some thoughts and quotes about giving up — both negative and positive.

We often want to be right — even at the risk of ending a great relationship or causing stress and pain.

Give up the need to be right. It seems that, in the long term, being kind is better than being right.

Give up the need for control. We should learn to allow people around us and things to go their own way.

Give up on blame. Blaming is passing the buck. We should not blame others for what we have, what we don’t have; for what we feel or don’t feel.

Give up on self-defeating self-talk. We must erase the negative, toxic, self-defeating mindset.

Eckhart Tolle wrote, “The mind is a superb instrument if used rightly. If used wrongly, however, it becomes very destructive.”

Give up your limiting beliefs. Spread your wings and soar! A belief is an idea that holds the mind.

Give up complaining. The power of positive thinking is essential. We must practice it daily.

Give up on criticism.

Give up on the need to impress others.

Give up your resistance to change. Change helps one to move forward from one point to another. Sometimes, sudden change may seem negative. It is a matter of knowing how to deal with it and how to accept it. One can learn how to make it positive.

Give up labels. Stop labeling people, things, and events that you don’t understand as being weird or different by opening your mind, little by little. The mind only works when it is open.

Wayne Dyer wrote, “The highest form of ignorance is when you reject something you don’t know anything about.”

Give up your fears. Fear is just an illusion.

US President Franklin D. Roosevelt once said, “The only thing we should fear is fear itself.”

Give up your excuses.

Give up the past. The past may appear much better than the present. (Nostalgia colors it somehow.) The future is worrisome. We have only the present moment and we should enjoy life. “Life is a journey, not a destination.”

Give up attachment. It is important to know how to detach oneself from material things, possessions. One can like a certain lifestyle level and enjoy some luxuries. But these pleasures are fleeting. They do not and cannot last forever. One could lose them all in an instant. A sudden economic downturn, a tragedy, a disaster.

One should be willing to let go. Then one can feel serene, tolerant, and attain understanding. It would be on a higher level.

Give up living your life according to other people’s expectations. Many individuals live a life that is not theirs — it is pretentious — instead of listening to their inner voice. It is not worth trying to please everybody because it makes one lose control over life.

We have only one life. We should own it and live it without the distractions and pressure of other people’s opinions.

It is time to take responsibility for our actions. That is how we become true to ourselves. Then one can attain a measure of happiness and contentment.

Happy new year to all!

Maria Victoria Rufino is an artist, writer and businesswoman. She is president and executive producer of Maverick Productions.

mavrufino@gmail.com

As we embark on the unfolding chapters of 2024, the world of financial technology (fintech) continues its dynamic evolution. This year brings forth a tapestry of trends shaping the industry, with each thread weaving a narrative of digital innovation, regulatory adaptations, and changing consumer landscapes. Let’s delve into these transformative shifts, backed by real-world examples.

One trend is the growth of decentralized finance (DeFi). This continues to dominate the fintech landscape, with platforms like Aave and Compound gaining prominence. These decentralized financial hubs provide lending and borrowing services, enabling users to earn interest or borrow assets without relying on traditional banking systems. Notably, projects like Terra are contributing to financial inclusion by offering stablecoins pegged to local currencies in regions with limited access to traditional banking services. In the Philippines, platforms like BloomX are facilitating decentralized currency exchange, offering users the ability to trade digital assets without the need for traditional intermediaries.

Another is the rise of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), which are not just theoretical concepts; they are actively shaping the financial landscape. China’s Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) stands out as a tangible example, with ongoing pilot programs across various cities showcasing the potential of a government-backed digital currency. Additionally, the Bahamas has successfully implemented the Sand Dollar, demonstrating the practical implementation of a fully operational CBDC. The Philippines is still in the exploratory phase, with the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) expressing interest in studying the potential implementation of a digital currency.

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are another pivotal trend in reshaping financial services. Wealthfront, a robo-advisory platform, employs AI to provide personalized investment advice, highlighting the marriage of technology and finance for individual benefit. On the frontlines of fraud prevention, companies like Feedzai utilize AI for real-time detection, exemplifying the role of technology in safeguarding financial transactions. Coins.ph, a mobile wallet in the Philippines, utilizes AI for fraud detection, ensuring secure and seamless transactions for its users.

Not to be left behind is the continued evolution of contactless payments and digital wallets, which have become integral to our daily transactions. Apple Pay and Google Pay, among others, are now household names. These digital wallets leverage NFC technology for secure and convenient transactions, minimizing the need for physical cash. Biometric authentication, as seen in mobile banking apps like Samsung Pay, further enhances the security of digital payment solutions. GCash and Maya, widely used mobile wallets in the Philippines, facilitate cashless transactions, bill payments, and even investments, contributing to the growing adoption of digital financial services. The convenience and security offered by digital wallets align with the broader global trend.

Sustainable finance and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) investing are likewise gaining traction, with fintech platforms like Aspiration and Clim8 Invest leading the charge. Aspiration offers sustainable banking and investment options, allowing users to align financial goals with environmental and social values. In Europe, Clim8 Invest focuses on sustainable investing, offering a platform that facilitates investments in companies committed to climate change mitigation and environmental sustainability. In the Philippines, fintech platforms like Investree are incorporating ESG criteria into their lending and investment processes, allowing users to make socially responsible financial decisions.

The ongoing growth in fintech comes with its cybersecurity challenges. Companies like Forter specialize in AI-driven fraud prevention solutions, providing advanced tools for the detection and prevention of online transaction fraud. Addressing regulatory compliance is OpenVASP, an open-source project focused on developing a framework for Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs) to comply with global regulations related to anti-money laundering (AML) and counter-terrorist financing (CTF). In the Philippines, financial institutions are investing in advanced cybersecurity measures, incorporating AI and ML to detect and prevent fraudulent activities.

In conclusion, the financial technology landscape in 2024 is marked by tangible developments and real-world applications. DeFi, CBDCs, AI, contactless payments, sustainable finance, and cybersecurity are not just concepts but forces actively shaping the way we manage and interact with our finances. Fintech’s journey is one of collaboration between traditional financial institutions and nimble startups, promising a future that is both transformative and inclusive.

The views expressed herein are his own and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of his office as well as FINEX.

Reynaldo C. Lugtu, Jr. is the founder and CEO of Hungry Workhorse, a digital, culture, and customer experience transformation consulting firm. He is a fellow at the US-based Institute for Digital Transformation. He is the chair of the Digital Transformation IT Governance Committee of FINEX Academy. He teaches strategic management and digital transformation in the MBA Program of De La Salle University. The author may be e-mailed at rey.lugtu@hungryworkhorse.com

THE PESO rose further against the dollar on Thursday as Philippine inflation likely eased last month.

The local unit closed at P55.50 per dollar on Thursday, strengthening by seven centavos from its P55.57 finish on Wednesday, based on Bankers Association of the Philippines data.

The peso opened Thursday’s session steady at P55.75 against the dollar. Its intraday best was at P55.465, while it dropped to as low as P55.78 versus the greenback during the session.

Dollars exchanged dropped to $1.72 billion on Thursday from $1.88 billion on Wednesday.

The peso gained against the dollar on market expectations that headline inflation eased further in December, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release December consumer price index data on Friday.

A BusinessWorld poll conducted last week yielded a median estimate of 4% for December headline inflation, within the central bank’s 3.6-4.4% forecast and slower than 4.1% in November and 8.1% in December 2022.

If realized, December would be the first time that inflation was within the central bank’s 2-4% target and the slowest since the 3% print in February 2022.

This would bring the 2023 inflation average to 6%, matching the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) baseline forecast.

The continued easing of inflation could prompt the BSP to cut rates within this year, Mr. Ricafort added.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said last month that the central bank will likely keep rates elevated until inflation is comfortably within its 2-4% goal.

The Monetary Board has raised borrowing costs by a cumulative 450 basis points (bps) from May 2022 to October 2023, bringing the policy rate to a 16-year high of 6.5%.

For Friday, Mr. Ricafort expects the peso to range from P56.40 to P55.60 per dollar. — AMCS

PHILIPPINE SHARES rebounded on Thursday amid expectations of better inflation data for December.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) gained 103.64 points or 1.59% to end at 6,602.52 on Thursday, while the broader all shares index rose 35.52 points or 1.02% to close at 3,485.76.

“This Thursday, the local market rose by 103.64 points to 6,602.52 on the back of hopes that headline inflation in the Philippines had further declined last December. Supporting the said hopes is the midpoint of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 3.6-4.4% range forecast which is below the preceding month’s 4.1%,” Philstocks Financial, Inc. Research and Engagement Officer Mikhail Philippe Q. Plopenio said in a Viber message.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release December consumer price index data on Friday.

A BusinessWorld poll last week yielded a median estimate of 4% for December headline inflation, within the BSP’s 3.6-4.4% forecast for the month. This is slightly slower than the 4.1% in November but significantly below the 8.1% in December 2022.

If realized, December could mark the first time that inflation met the central bank’s 2-4% target after 20 straight months. It would also be the slowest since the 3% print in February 2022.

This would bring the 2023 inflation average to 6%, matching the BSP’s baseline forecast.

“The index surged above the 6,600 level and reached its highest close in more than five months as investors positioned ahead of the release of the Philippine December inflation print on Friday,” China Bank Capital Corp. Managing Director Juan Paolo E. Colet likewise said in a Viber message.

“The PSEi bucked the fall of most Asian markets as traders bought up local stocks on expectations that domestic headline inflation last month cooled to 4%, which is within the BSP’s target inflation range,” Mr. Colet added.

Asian shares fell on Thursday as traders dialed back bets of steep and early rate cuts this year, with the minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s last meeting providing few clues on when US cuts might start, Reuters reported.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.17% and was headed for the third straight day of losses.

Back home, almost all sectoral indices ended higher on Thursday. Property increased by 78.36 points or 2.77% to 2,907.31; financials climbed by 30.76 points or 1.78% to 1,754.47; services rose by 25.86 points or 1.59% to 1,651.63; holding firms went up by 71.46 points or 1.13% to 6,360.48; and industrials added 33.14 points or 0.36% to end at 9,137.63. 

Meanwhile, mining and oil dropped by 77.40 points or 0.78% to 9,777.89. 

Value turnover climbed to P5.18 billion on Thursday with 461.64 million issues changing hands from the P3.11 billion with 182.7 million shares seen on Wednesday.

Advancers outnumbered decliners, 110 to 85, while 46 issues ended unchanged. 

Net foreign buying stood at P768.3 million on Thursday versus the P260.5 million in net selling seen the prior day. — R.M.D. Ochave with Reuters

THE Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) said the Panay power outage has been referred to an interim grid management committee for investigation, adding that appropriate penalties will be imposed after the panel delivers its findings.

“After the investigation, if penalties are called for, then we will commence proper proceedings to allow the relevant parties to answer and, if answers are not acceptable, impose penalties,” ERC Chairperson Monalisa C. Dimalanta said in a Viber message.

The National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) reported on Tuesday that multiple power plants tripped, including units of Panay Energy Development Corp. and Palm Concepcion Power Corp. (PCPC).

Due to the plant outages, some 452 megawatts (MW) became unavailable, causing the NGCP to raise a yellow alert on the Visayas grid.

The yellow alert was lifted at 9:01 p.m. on Tuesday.

According to an NGCP update on Thursday, some 244.6 MW of electricity is currently being generated by Panay power plants.

The Visayas grid will need about 300 MW to stabilize, and is awaiting the return of a 135-MW PCPC facility.

The plant is targeted to be synchronized with the grid between 10 p.m. and 12 midnight on Jan. 4.

Citing an initial report, Ms. Dimalanta said equipment failure at PCPC caused the plant to trip. Operators are waiting for the unit to cool down before it can be restarted.

MORE Electric and Power Corp., the sole electric distribution utility in Iloilo City, has been affected by the power disruption, as well as seven electric cooperatives on the island.

As of 2:30 p.m. on Thursday, almost 50% of MORE’s customers were still not receiving power, it said. The company has imposed rotational outages every three hours due to the insufficient power supply.

“We need to investigate this further because it is impossible that all plants just decided to go offline all at the same time, or that they all failed on their own at the same time,” Ms. Dimalanta said.

“There must be something that led to those serial consequences among the generation plants,” she added.

Ms. Dimalanta said there should have been systems in place to prevent such occurrences.

She said that NGCP can direct distribution utilities to drop load to reduce demand to the level of available supply, thereby stabilizing the system.

“The system operator also controls the dispatch of plants so it could have initiated measures also on that end,” she said.

“We are reviewing whether these measures were undertaken and whether they were enough, or if anything else can be improved,” she added.

The NGCP has said that load restoration will be done “conservatively, by matching loads to restored generation, to prevent repeated voltage failure.”

“The people must understand that we can only transmit power, we do not generate power,” it said in a statement on Wednesday.

Legislators have called on the NGCP and the Department of Energy (DoE) to look into the Western Visayas outages.

“The DoE and the NGCP must understand the gravity of this situation and act decisively to resolve it,” Senate President Juan Miguel F. Zubiri said in a statement. “They should get their acts together immediately.”

He said constant power interruptions hamper the livelihoods and the delivery of basic services to the region’s citizens.

Mr. Zubiri called on the DoE and NGCP to be transparent in implementing measures to address the outages.

Party-list Rep. France L. Castro called on the NGCP to take accountability for the blackouts that have left some parts of Panay without electricity since Jan. 2.

In a statement, she also called on MORE Electric and Power Corp., which supplies power to Iloilo City, to improve its coordination with the electric system grid operators.

“Does (MORE Power) even have a system to help protect the grid from collapsing, like a load dropping mechanism?” Ms. Castro said.

Senate Majority Floor Leader Joel J. Villanueva said the government needs a short-term and long-term strategy for dealing with power disruptions, include ensuring that power plants are properly maintained.

“We also need to continue exploring other sources of renewable energy such as wind and solar to keep up with the DoE’s goal of a power generation mix target of 35% by 2030,” he said in a statement.

Citing DoE data, Mr. Villanueva said about half of the power plants in the Philippines are at least 20 years old.

“The situation is no longer tolerable, and the DoE and the NGCP must urgently address this issue before irreparable damage is done to our communities,” Mr. Zubiri said. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera and John Victor D. Ordoñez

THE PHILIPPINES imported 3.48 million metric tons (MT) of rice in 2023 as of late December, according to the Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI).

Rice imports in December up to the 28^th of the month totaled 387.21 thousand MT, up 29.19% from a year earlier.

The Department of Agriculture (DA) said for the entirety of 2023, imports are expected to total 3.65 million MT, or below the 3.8 million MT projected by the US Department of Agriculture.

The DA has said that about 500,000 MT of rice are expected to arrive in December and January as the government seeks to build reserves for the peak of El Niño.

El Niño is expected to intensify between January and May, affecting about 63 provinces with droughts and dry spells, according to the government weather service, known as PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration).

The BPI reported that Vietnam remained the Philippines’ top supplier of rice with 84.27% of total imports. Shipments from Vietnam are expected to hit 2.94 million MT.

Thailand supplied 297.2 thousand MT and Myanmar 143.92 thousand MT.

The DA said that 75 thousand MT of rice was set to arrive from India by early January, part of a 295,00 MT rice allocation India granted the Philippines in October.

The Indian government issued the quota for non-basmati white rice to the Philippines. It had earlier banned all exports of non-basmati white rice to stabilize its domestic supply.

Arrivals from India have amounted to 13,758 MT, as of Dec. 28.

Meanwhile, the BPI has issued 824 sanitary and phytosanitary import clearances (SPSICs) for December covering the import of about 660.01 thousand MT of rice.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel, Jr. said he has instructed traders to use up their SPSICs for an additional 1 million MT of rice. The DA has imposed a 30-day deadline for traders to use their permits. — Adrian H. Halili

AGRICULTURAL EXPORT growth will continue to be constrained by limited output and funding to develop the high-value crop sector, farmers said.

“Our problem with exports goes back to our problems in producing high-quality and competitively priced products on a consistent and sustainable basis, and in a way that is profitable for our farmers and market players,” Federation of Free Farmers National Manager Raul Q. Montemayor said in a Viber message.

Former Agriculture Undersecretary Fermin D. Adriano blamed the lack of funds allocated for high-value crops, as against the attention paid to rice production.

The Department of Agriculture (DA) has set aside about P31 billion in 2024 to improve rice production.

“For as long as research and development and extension services receive a pittance, and the DA does not properly play its role of training our agri-exporters on (sanitary and phytosanitary) standards of the various rich importing countries, export growth potential will be constrained,” Mr. Adriano said in a Viber message.

The DA has announced the preparation of a Philippine Agricultural Export Development Plan to increase exports of agriculture and fisheries products.

“Despite all the supposed concessions we gained from trade negotiations, our agricultural trade deficit has continued to increase, especially since our competitors are racing far ahead of us,” Mr. Montemayor added.

Agricultural exports declined 13.3% to $1.61 billion during the third quarter, accounting for 8.2% of total exports, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority.

The leading exports were edible fruit and nuts as well as peel of citrus fruit and melons, valued at $492.09 million, or 30.5% of the total.

He said that the DA needs to identify products to focus on for export while setting up a support system covering the process from production to domestic and international markets.

“Malaking trabaho (It’s a big job) but there are many success stories, which we just need to promote and expand,” Mr. Montemayor added.

Meanwhile, Roy S. Kempis, a retired Pampanga State Agricultural University professor, said that agriculture products like mango, avocado, and durian are on demand in global markets but can benefit from further support.

“Philippine mango is preferred for its sweetness, texture and appropriate amount of fiber both in the export and domestic markets,” Mr. Kempis said in a Viber message, citing the potential for expanding the crop.

He added that the government could increase farmland dedicated to avocado and durian.

Mr. Kempis said technical and management training is needed by producers and exporters.

He said increasing the planting area, improving pest management and irrigation systems, and building community processing areas, will support the growth of such exportable crops, as will more access to credit.

“Exporting and financial literacy are two other areas that agriculture and food producers and exporters could be trained in,” he added.

INDONESIAN President Joko Widodo will make a three-day visit to the Philippines starting Jan. 9, according to Malacañang.

The visit coincides with the meeting in Manila between foreign affairs officials of both countries, who the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) said on Thursday are expected to discuss enhancing cooperation on regional and international issues.

According to the Presidential Communications Office (PCO), Mr. Widodo is set to meet with President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. on Jan. 10 to discuss ways to deepen bilateral ties.

The two leaders will “take stock of the progress in Philippines-Indonesia relations,” it said, citing Mr. Marcos’ official visit to Indonesia in September last year.

“The two leaders are also expected to reaffirm their commitment to deepening and expanding Philippines-Indonesia ties, especially as the two countries will celebrate their 75^th anniversary of formal diplomatic relations in November 2024,” the PCO added.

Meanwhile, the DFA said Philippine Foreign Affairs Enrique A. Manalo and Indonesian Minister for Foreign Affairs Retno L.P. Marsudi will meet for the 7^th Philippines-Indonesia Joint Commission for Bilateral Cooperation (JCBC), a venue for exchanging views on boosting bilateral relations.

“The JCBC is the primary dialogue mechanism between the Philippines and Indonesia to review accomplishments on mutual collaboration initiatives,” the agency said.

Envoys on both sides are expected to tackle issues of “mutual interest” and avenues for enhancing cooperation.

When asked what agreements are expected to be signed at the dialogue, DFA Spokesperson Ma. Teresita C. Daza told reporters in a WhatsApp message that “preparations for the meeting are ongoing.”

Indonesian President Joko Widodo is set to visit Manila on Jan. 10 to meet with Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.

In Sept. last year, the Philippine President secured $22 million (P1.3 billion) in investment pledges from Indonesian companies on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit in Jakarta.

The deals were related to animal health, artificial intelligence and digital sectors, the Presidential Palace earlier said. A month later, Indonesia assured the Philippines of continued access to its coal-fired power plants.

THE Chinese military began a two-day patrol in the South China Sea on Wednesday in an apparent response to the joint drills of the Philippines and its treaty ally, the United States, in the same region.

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Southern Theatre Command said it had sent its navy and air force to the waterway for routine patrols to monitor activities that “disrupt” the region.

Any military activities that “cause disturbances and create hot spots in the South China Sea are fully under control,” it said in a statement posted on the website of China’s defense ministry.

It said its troops remain on high alert at all times, “resolutely defending national sovereignty, security, and maritime rights and interests.”

The Chinese patrols, which were set to end on Thursday, Jan. 4, coincide with the joint drills of the Philippines and the United States, the second in two months in the same area as the treaty allies boost their partnerships amid an increasingly belligerent China. During their joint drills, the Philippine military sent three ships while the US Indo-Pacific Command deployed the Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group, which is composed of several missile destroyer ships and aircraft.

“Sailing and operating together demonstrates our commitment to improving our interoperability and information sharing with the Armed Forces of the Philippines, to enhance our ability to coordinate on maritime domain awareness and other shared security interests,” Rear Adm. Carlos Sardiello, commander of the Carrier Strike Group 1, said in a release.

The two allies conducted passing exercises, joint patrols, cross-deck exercises, and fixed-wing flight operations, among other activities at sea.

Justin Keith Baquisal, an analyst at Future Trends, ASEAN Matters, Current Affairs, Technology and Security (FACTS), said China was likely alarmed by the Washington’s deployment of an aircraft carrier.

“[It’s] definitely a very strong statement from the US which China felt it needed to respond to,” he said in a Twitter message.

He said China is “signaling displeasure” at the return of the Philippines’ joint patrols with the US, which had been discontinued in recent years and are being revived under the Marcos administration. 

The last joint sail between the two countries in the South China Sea under Maritime Cooperative Activity occurred in late November.

Reports showed that China’s Type 052D guided-missile destroyer and Type 054A frigate shadowed the Philippine and American navies on Wednesday, triggering one of the Philippine patrol vessels to issue warnings that the Chinese side did not respond to.

China’s two-day patrol was “a clear show of force by China at a time when efforts are being made among like-minded democracies to keep the seas safe, open, and free,” Don Mclain Gill, who teaches international relations at De La Salle University, said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

He noted that China also conducted naval exercises close to Taiwan in the past to demonstrate its power projection amid its tension with the self-ruled island, which is being supported by the US in its push for autonomy.

Victor Andres C. Manhit, president of think tank Stratbase ADR Institute, said the Philippines is expected to continue sailing within its exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea with the help of its allies.

“As it demonstrated last year, the Philippines has not deterred against acts of aggression in the West Philippine Sea, and it will continue to defend its territory,” he said via Messenger chat.

“This may be in the form of assertive transparency through the regular reporting of developments in the area and, in the form of multilateral cooperation with like-minded states.”

Despite the tensions, Mr. Baquisal said shipping lanes in the South China Sea will likely remain stable.

“Both Philippine and Chinese actions are largely routine operations consistent with the defense postures they have vowed to maintain to defend their national interests,” he said.

“Neither the Philippines nor China have systematically threatened shipping lanes in the South China Sea, so the patrols don’t really have an immediate-term impact on businesses and their cargo passing through the waterway, where vital global trade passes through,” he added.

THE COMMISSION on Higher Education (CHED) and the Department and Education (DepEd) must come up with a plan to ensure students affected by the discontinuation of senior high school (SHS) programs in state universities and colleges (SUCs) are not left behind, lawmakers said on Thursday.

“To prevent any disruption in learners’ education, DepEd should proactively explore options such as admitting these learners in public schools or facilitating their transfer to the private sector where they can benefit from the voucher program,” Senator Sherwin T. Gatchalian, who chairs Senate committee on basic education, said in a statement.

In a memo dated Dec. 18, CHED said it is discontinuing the senior high school program in SUCs and local universities and colleges (LUCs).

Based on data from the DepEd, there are about 17,751 grade 11 students currently rolled in SUCs and LUCs. At present, there are 2,030,451 Grade 12 students enrolled in state colleges.

Senator Francis “Chiz” G. Escudero, who heads the Senate Committee on Higher, Technical and Vocational education, said the DepEd should closely monitor its regional offices to check on students in danger of being left behind by the program phaseout.

“Even though this is within CHED’s legal authority, it is still important to ensure the welfare of our senior high school students and that no one is left behind,” he said in a statement in Filipino.

In a public briefing on Wednesday, CHED Chairman Prospero E. de Vera III said his agency in the past two years has been instructing public state colleges to “wind down” senior high school enrollments since there was no more legal basis for their offering of high school education.

“The transition period (from K to 12) is over,” he said. “State colleges and universities are full, and they need to use the classrooms and teachers.”

The transition period for K to 12 was from school year 2016-2017 to school year 2020-2021.

In a separate memo, CHED also cut off financial aid for Grades 11 and 12 students in SUCs and LUCs.

Mr. De Vera earlier said he was prompted to release the memo after discovering that some SUCs and LUCs were still accepting senior high enrollees even after the transition period.

DepEd spokesman Michael T. Poa said students affected may opt to enroll in public schools and avail of the voucher program.

For her part, Sen. Mary Grace N. Poe-Llamanzares said: “There should be an assessment to know if public schools nationwide have the facilities and personnel to accept to influx of student.”

ACT Teachers Party-List Rep. France L. Castro said CHED and DepEd should have consulted teachers, students and other stakeholders before cutting off financial aid for senior high school students.

She said students risk studying in overcrowded public high schools and teachers may have irregular workloads due to a lack of cash aid.

“The senior high school program should hold its promise of employability and more competitive graduates, not as burden to Filipino learners,” Ms. Poe-Llamanzares said.

This time, the 26-year-old Army woman from Legazpi City is seeking to become the first woman to win a national men’s championship crown and claim a spot to the men’s national team seeing action in the World Chess Olympiad.

And she’s getting closer to achieving one of two or both as she zoomed to joint second midway through the 13-round Philippine National Chess Championships at the Marikina Community Convention Center Wednesday night.

Ms. Frayna’s last victim was Olympiad veteran International Master (IM) Barlo Nadera — a 68-move, seventh-round triumph of a Torre Attack — that catapulted her to a share of No. 2 with IM Jem Garcia, who split the point with GM John Paul Gomez in 29 moves of an English Opening, with five points each.

They were a full point behind IM Daniel Quizon, who used the King’s Indian Defense to send WIM Marie Antoinette San Diego to a 52-move submission to remain unflappable at the helm with six points going into the last six rounds of this meet presented by Marikina City Mayor Marcy Teodoro and Congresswoman Maan Teodoro.

The champion here pockets P120,000 courtesy of Marikina City, NCFP Chairman President Prospero Pichay, Jr., POC President Abraham Tolentino, PSC Chair Richard Bachmann, the Eugene Torre Chess Foundation and Pan de Amerikana’s Jundio Salvador while the top three finishers makes the squad bound for the biennial event slated in September in Budapest, Hungary.

Ms. Frayna, who was battling Vince Angelo Medina and IM Paulo Bersamina in the eighth and ninth round, respectively, at press time, is hoping to accomplish one or both. — Joey Villar

Joining forces for Strong Group Athletics, Mr. Tiu as head coach and Mr. Goorjian as consultant will steer the ship for the Philippine representative in a bid to win the 33^rd Dubai International Basketball Championship slated on January 19 to 28.

“I can’t wait to work with my good friend Brian Goorjian. It’s been a long time coming. It’s a great chance for me to learn from him. He’s a legend,” said Mr. Tiu, also the College of St. Benilde mentor in the National Collegiate Athletic Association.

Mr. Tiu steered Strong Group to a quarterfinal finish last year and the Mighty Sports Philippines to a historic title in 2020 to become the first non-Middle Eastern champion in Dubai.

This time for the same team owned by Frank and Jacob Lao, he will have an illustrious wing in Mr. Goorjian, best known for anchoring the first-ever bronze medal of the Australia men’s national team in the Tokyo Olympics.

But this isn’t the first time Mr. Goorjian, also six-time NBL champion and six-time NBL Coach of the Year, will be stamping his class here.

The seasoned coach, who also had stints in the Chinese Basketball Association, guided guest team Bay Area to a runner-up finish in the PBA Commissioner’s Cup last year.

Mr. Goorjian and his Hong Kong-based team dominated the elimination rounds and the playoffs before falling short against Barangay Ginebra in Game 7 of the epic finale witnessed by a record-shattering crowd of 54,589 fans at the Philippine Arena in Bocaue, Bulacan.

His resume speaks for itself, providing a massive boost for Strong Group’s redemption bid in Dubai with a bevy of equally distinguished reinforcements led by NBA champion and three-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year Dwight Howard.

“With his unparalleled coaching acumen and a wealth of experience, Brian brings an invaluable perspective to all of us,” said team owner Frank Lao.

Strong Group, which will also feature UAAP MVP Kevin Quiambao and other collegiate stalwarts, is scheduled to open training camp this weekend with the arrival of Howard and other aces in Gilas Pilipinas naturalized player Andray Blatche, Andre Roberson and McKenzie Moore. — John Bryan Ulanday

EVEN with a campaign marked by alternating streaks of two wins, two losses, three wins and two losses, NorthPort (5-4) is within range of its primary target — the PBA Commissioner’s Cup quarterfinals.

So the best thing to do for coach Bonnie Tan and his youthful crew is to make the most of this opportunity and ensure their hassle-free Last-8 entry with the playoffs race about to get hotter than ever after the New Year’s Day festivities.

The Batang Pier can attain that with victory No. 6 in today’s resumption of play against also-ran Blackwater (1-8) at the Smart Araneta Coliseum.

Take care of business in the 4 p.m. gig and the Batang Pier can get rid of a possible complication in the bare knuckle fight for the three remaining quarters berths involving them, TNT (4-5), Rain or Shine (4-5), NLEX (3-7) and even Terrafirma (2-7).

Mr. Tan needs to draw the best from import Venky Jois, ace gunner Arvin Tolentino, former top pick Joshua Munzon and promising freshmen Fran Yu, Cade Flores and Brent Paraiso to get it done right away and avoid a “take-two” in a harsher, high-pressure environment against twice-to-beat-hunting Ginebra (6-3) on Sunday.

But in the Bossing they expect to find a tough customer. Though out of the running with still two games left, Jeff Cariaso’s team is bent on going out swinging and getting something to build on for the next conference.

Equally vital is the faceoff between Tropang Giga and the Elasto Painters at 8 p.m., where the winner moves to five Ws and a step closer to the “magic number” of six.

The Tropang Giga debut Rahlir Hollis-Jefferson in place of his younger brother Rondae, who suffered a neck injury in their East Asia Super League campaign last month. TNT, the Season 47 Governors’ Cup titlists, is out to pump life back into its bid after losing its last two outings, including a 78-86 Christmas Day setback to Ginebra with an all-Filipino lineup.

On the other side stand the Elasto Painters, currently the league’s hottest team.

Yeng Guiao’s team, led by the rebounding machine Tree Treadwell, has won its last four games and carries intense desire to continue its rise and salvage a quarters trip coming off a woeful 1-5 start. — Olmin Leyba

All 379 people on board the JAL Airbus A350 widebody jet escaped before the plane was completely engulfed in flames that took more than six hours to extinguish.

But five of the six crew of the other aircraft — a smaller Coast Guard plane that had been on its way to deliver aid to quake-hit regions on Japan’s west coast — were killed, with the surviving pilot badly injured.

As investigators combed the charred wreckage on Thursday, transport authorities are probing the circumstances that led to the Coast Guard plane entering the runway where the passenger jet was landing. Police are also looking into possible professional negligence in the case, according to media reports.

Transcripts released by authorities show air traffic control ordering the Coast Guard plane to proceed to a holding point near the runway minutes before the crash, instructions the pilot appeared to have read back in acknowledgement.

Japanese authorities said on Wednesday the passenger jet had been given permission to land, but the smaller plane had not been cleared for take-off, based on the transcripts.

The Coast Guard pilot said after the crash that he had been given permission to enter the runway, Coast Guard officials have said.

Authorities have only just begun their investigations and aviation experts say it usually takes the failure of multiple safety guardrails for an airplane accident to happen.

A notice to pilots in force before the accident suggested that a strip of stop lights embedded in the tarmac as an extra safety measure to prevent wrong turns, was out of service, according to a copy of the bulletin posted by US regulators.

BIG LOSSES
Japan Airlines estimated on Thursday the disaster would result in an operating loss of about 15 billion yen ($105 million).

The loss of the aircraft will be covered by insurance, the company said, adding it was assessing the impact on its earnings forecast for the financial year ending March 31.

Insurance industry sources have said US insurer AIG was the lead insurer on a $130-million “all-risks” policy for the two-year-old plane that was destroyed by the fire. AIG declined to comment.

It was the first-ever hull loss globally for the A350 model, according to Aviation Safety Network. The type, made largely from carbon composite, entered commercial service in 2015.

Shares of JAL fell as much as 2.4% before recovering to be up 0.6% as trading resumed after the New Year’s holiday.

From the moment of the collision, it took crew 18 minutes to get everyone off the plane and safely accounted for.

Japan’s second-biggest airline has detailed how the crew in the smoke-filled cabin followed emergency procedures in textbook fashion, even as passengers panicked, intercom systems failed and several evacuation chutes were out of use due to the fire.

Most of the passengers on the flight from Hokkaido were Japanese with at least 43 foreigners confirmed among them including Australians, Swedish, Hong Kong, Chinese and South Korean nationals, a JAL spokesperson said.

Wreckage from the planes remained scattered around the runway on Thursday as several officials, some wearing masks, gloves and hard hats, surveyed the debris, footage on public broadcaster NHK showed. A Coast Guard official on Wednesday said they had recovered a voice recorder from the Coast Guard plane.

Hundreds of flights in and out of Haneda have faced cancelation or delays since the crash on Tuesday, leaving many frustrated passengers at the airport.

Michio Kusunoki, a 67-year-old teacher, said she had faced two canceled flights as she tried to return to her home of Fukouka in Japan’s south from Haneda.

“I was meant to get on a plane yesterday evening at 7.30 p.m….Then I changed to this morning 8:30 a.m. and that flight was canceled too,” she said.

“I couldn’t get anything after that till 4:30 p.m. so I am going to roam around as I can’t get home.”

Nearly 200 passengers were also stranded overnight at New Chitose airport in Hokkaido where the flight originated from. — Reuters

HOSPITALS in at least four US states have reinstated mask mandates amid a rise in cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), seasonal flu and other respiratory illness.

Healthcare facilities in New York, California, Illinois and Massachusetts have made masks mandatory among patients and providers.

New York City Health Commissioner Dr. Ashwin Vasan told WABC TV on Wednesday that mask mandates had resumed at all 11 of the city’s public hospitals, 30 health centers and five long-term care facilities.

“What we don’t want is staffing shortages, right? When we saw the Omicron wave in 2022, the biggest issues were not only people getting sick, but that we had a lot of frontline health workers, they were out with COVID,” Mr. Vasan told WABC.

The most recent weekly data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) showed there were over 29,000 hospitalizations from COVID across the US from Dec. 17-23, up more than 16% from the previous week. The CDC also reported over 14,700 flu hospitalizations in that same period.

Mask mandates were political and cultural flashpoints during the COVID pandemic, sparking anger among those who bucked medical advice and felt masks did little to suppress the spread of the illness.

A conservative-dominated Supreme Court struck down President Joseph R. Biden’s federal vaccine-or-test mandate for companies, and a judge appointed by his Republican predecessor struck down his public transportation mask mandate.

There was also deep resentment among those who did wear masks and felt their health was put in jeopardy by those who did not.

More than 1.1 million Americans have died from COVID, CDC figures show, a greater rate than most other wealthy countries.

Rush University medical system in Chicago said on Tuesday that it was requiring “patients, visitors and staff to wear hospital-approved masks in some areas of the campus. They include clinical waiting areas and patient registration.”

Cook County Health, which encompasses Chicago, and Endeavor Health in the Chicago suburbs, last month started requiring masks again, after the Illinois Department of Public Health asked hospitals to step up mitigation efforts in several areas, including facility-wide masking.

In Massachusetts, Berkshire Health Systems began mandatory masking on Wednesday, according to a statement.

In California, Los Angeles County on Saturday reinstated masking at all licensed health care facilities, according to a county statement provided to the City News Service. The county’s health department did not immediately respond to a request for comment. — Reuters