DA sets best-case scenario for palay output at 20 million MT

OUTPUT of palay, or unmilled rice, could hit 20 million metric tons (MT) in the best-case scenario put forward by the Department of Agriculture (DA), which cited the increased land area planted to the grain.

“We expect it to be higher than last year…the highest we could reach is about 20 million MT,” Undersecretary for Rice Industry Development Leocadio S. Sebastian told reporters on the sidelines of the International Rice Congress last week.

Mr. Sebastian added that during the first half, the harvest was ahead of the year-earlier pace by about 300,000 MT.

Last year, palay output fell to 19.76 million MT from 19.96 million MT a year earlier, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

Mr. Sebastian said that El Niño has yet to affect the current harvest.

“There is no El Niño yet, the effect we are seeing is a lot of rain. We will prepare for it in the dry season,” he added.

The government weather service, known as PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration), has said that El Niño is likely to peak in late 2023 and early 2024.

Separately, International Potato Center Asia Regional Director Samarendu Mohanty said he does not consider rice self-sufficiency to be easy to achieve for the Philippines amid an increasing population.

“I don’t think you’ll be self-sufficient, with the population growth you have. You still have to address it through imports. And if you (resort to) imports, then you have this uncertainty (in the form of) exporting countries’ restrictions,” Mr. Mohanty said.

India’s Director of Foreign Trade announced on last week the easing of its export ban on non-basmati white rice, allocating 250,000 MT to the Philippines.

Vietnam, the Philippines’ top source for rice, announced plans to reduce rice exports to four million tons a year by 2033.

In a report the PSA said that Philippine’s rice self-sufficiency ratio declined to 77% in 2022 from 81.5% a year earlier.

Asked to comment, Mr. Sebastian said rice self-sufficiency can be attained via the government’s Masagana Rice Industry Development Program.

The program aims to stabilize the supply of the staple grain at between 24.99 million MT and 26.86 million MT, in the process keeping the annual growth of rice prices at less than 1%.

“We have to exert a lot of effort, we need to focus on initially irrigating about 1.5 million hectares, maximize the productivity in that area… (and) we could get higher yields, he said. — Adrian H. Halili